Blackjack Betting Strategy:
An Introduction to Betting Progressions
Betting progressions come in two basic flavors:
1. Negative Progression -- up your bet as you LOSE. The most famous being the "Martingale." In the Martingale you double up after each loss. Pretty much universally frowned on upon by gamblers.
2. Positive Progression -- up your bet as you WIN. Now you're playing with the "House's" money. Generally accepted by most gamblers as the only acceptable kind of progression.
Nearly every gambling "authority" on Blackjack (that means everyone peddling "Card Counting") says that progressions, negative or positive, will NEVER work!
Well, they are WRONG. I have yet to meet anyone foolish enough to run a 9 Step Martingale to its terrible conclusion(betting units of: 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256). NO ONE is that stupid! Besides the Table Limits would keep you from running that type of progression anyways.
They KEY to using ANY progression is to use them INTELLIGENTLY. That means playing only "X" amount of hands AND setting a LOSS and WIN Limit.
Again the "experts" (i.e. card counters) will say that "short-term" sessions just dovetail into "long-term" sessions. Limiting your gambling session times doesn't matter. I disagree. So does a guy by the name of Philip Koetsch the author of "Conquer the Casinos."
Read on Blackjack Grasshopper...
An Introduction to Betting Progressions
Betting progressions come in two basic flavors:
1. Negative Progression -- up your bet as you LOSE. The most famous being the "Martingale." In the Martingale you double up after each loss. Pretty much universally frowned on upon by gamblers.
2. Positive Progression -- up your bet as you WIN. Now you're playing with the "House's" money. Generally accepted by most gamblers as the only acceptable kind of progression.
Nearly every gambling "authority" on Blackjack (that means everyone peddling "Card Counting") says that progressions, negative or positive, will NEVER work!
Well, they are WRONG. I have yet to meet anyone foolish enough to run a 9 Step Martingale to its terrible conclusion(betting units of: 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128-256). NO ONE is that stupid! Besides the Table Limits would keep you from running that type of progression anyways.
They KEY to using ANY progression is to use them INTELLIGENTLY. That means playing only "X" amount of hands AND setting a LOSS and WIN Limit.
Again the "experts" (i.e. card counters) will say that "short-term" sessions just dovetail into "long-term" sessions. Limiting your gambling session times doesn't matter. I disagree. So does a guy by the name of Philip Koetsch the author of "Conquer the Casinos."
Read on Blackjack Grasshopper...
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Barstow and Koetsch: Hucksters or Heralds of Profit?
Frank Barstow, the author of the above pictured book, "Beat the Casino" did two things for me. He MADE me a lot of money at the Casino. Then he LOST me even MORE money there!
That being said, I'd still recommend picking up a used copy of his book! He tells you all about betting progressions for "even-money" games. Mr. Barstow WAS on to something.
But he was MISSING a part of the puzzle. He alludes to it in his book when he writes, "There's an old saying in Wall Street that goes, "Trees don't grow to heaven." I suggest that you keep it in mind whenever you're having a nice little run of winning bets."
The problem is this: WHEN do you stop if you're winning? He couldn't quantify an answer. Well, the next gentleman did. I recommend his book, "Conquer the Casinos: A Computer Analysis of Successful Gaming Strategies." The problem is, its hard to find a copy of his book...
Philip Koetsch: Going 100!
What Koestsch realized in his book, "Conquer the Casinos" is that betting progressions DO work. But ONLY if you limit your play. Barstow understood that the "house edge" could be overcome, but only temporarily with progressions. But he couldn't quantify how long someone should play before calling it quits.
After playing more than 100 hands the "house edge" will inevitably kick in, and grind you down. This includes using a SHORT "Martingale" series.
"But all gambling sessions, no matter how short, turn into ONE long term session! Setting session time or limits DOES NOT WORK!" Again WRONG!
Koetsch simulated 600 round of 100 plays per round. That's a total of 60,000 hands! Well into the "long-term" range. Guess what? PROFITS were shown in 60,000 hands played!
Another landmark discovery by Koetsch was that you should QUIT after you've made a couple "reversals" when gambling.
In his terminology a "reversal" is when you've gone into "negative territory" with you session bankroll but then bounced back into the positive. It will only happen maybe 2 or three times, depending on what progression you are using.
The prudent thing to do is STOP after you've had one or two reversals. You may not have hit your "Win" goal, but you're in danger of loosing your entire bankroll if you keep going!
Koetsch: Winning with a SMALL Bankroll
Again Koetsch proved that you can WIN in the long-term with a TINY bankroll. He was able to win using a bankroll of 100 UNITS. That's incredibly SMALL compared to Card Counting!
Let put this into persepective: do you want to risk you $5,000 bankroll counting cards OR risk $500 using a progression?
Next, let's look at some WINNING PROGRESSIONS below...
Frank Barstow, the author of the above pictured book, "Beat the Casino" did two things for me. He MADE me a lot of money at the Casino. Then he LOST me even MORE money there!
That being said, I'd still recommend picking up a used copy of his book! He tells you all about betting progressions for "even-money" games. Mr. Barstow WAS on to something.
But he was MISSING a part of the puzzle. He alludes to it in his book when he writes, "There's an old saying in Wall Street that goes, "Trees don't grow to heaven." I suggest that you keep it in mind whenever you're having a nice little run of winning bets."
The problem is this: WHEN do you stop if you're winning? He couldn't quantify an answer. Well, the next gentleman did. I recommend his book, "Conquer the Casinos: A Computer Analysis of Successful Gaming Strategies." The problem is, its hard to find a copy of his book...
Philip Koetsch: Going 100!
What Koestsch realized in his book, "Conquer the Casinos" is that betting progressions DO work. But ONLY if you limit your play. Barstow understood that the "house edge" could be overcome, but only temporarily with progressions. But he couldn't quantify how long someone should play before calling it quits.
After playing more than 100 hands the "house edge" will inevitably kick in, and grind you down. This includes using a SHORT "Martingale" series.
"But all gambling sessions, no matter how short, turn into ONE long term session! Setting session time or limits DOES NOT WORK!" Again WRONG!
Koetsch simulated 600 round of 100 plays per round. That's a total of 60,000 hands! Well into the "long-term" range. Guess what? PROFITS were shown in 60,000 hands played!
Another landmark discovery by Koetsch was that you should QUIT after you've made a couple "reversals" when gambling.
In his terminology a "reversal" is when you've gone into "negative territory" with you session bankroll but then bounced back into the positive. It will only happen maybe 2 or three times, depending on what progression you are using.
The prudent thing to do is STOP after you've had one or two reversals. You may not have hit your "Win" goal, but you're in danger of loosing your entire bankroll if you keep going!
Koetsch: Winning with a SMALL Bankroll
Again Koetsch proved that you can WIN in the long-term with a TINY bankroll. He was able to win using a bankroll of 100 UNITS. That's incredibly SMALL compared to Card Counting!
Let put this into persepective: do you want to risk you $5,000 bankroll counting cards OR risk $500 using a progression?
Next, let's look at some WINNING PROGRESSIONS below...
Parlay Into Winnings At Blackjack
The "Parlay" is a GREAT way to multiply your winnings.
Here's how it works, if you WIN your first bet, you DOUBLE that bet (with the house's money) and put it all back in the betting circle to try for a second win (a parlay).
If you win, you start your progression at the start. If you lose, you move up the ladder to your next bet and try again for two wins in a row.
A winning "parlay" on an even money bet will yield 3 TIMES your original bet. Not bad right?
You can devise your own "Parlays." Here's a very simple parlay. I've used it successfully to win hundreds of dollars very quickly. I've played it at the Craps table and the casino game, "War" using a base bet of $5.
1-1-1-2-2-4-4-8-8
There are folks on the internet selling this Parlay for over $50 a pop! I'm giving it to you FREE. You're welcome!
How it Works
So you start with 1 unit. You try for a 1 unit parlay three times. You'll then double up your betting units to 2. Try for a parlay twice. Then double to four, then eight. In total you'll risk 31 UNITS. That'd be $155 dollars if you started at $5.
You Will LOSE This Series - Back Your Play!
I'd suggest you go with enough money to try THREE progressions. STOP after you've made 20 or more UNITS. But NEVER quit during a "winning" streak. Stop after your first LOSS during a winning streak.
The last time I used this progression I promptly LOST my first series. I was playing at a $5 "War" table. In a matter of minutes I was out $155! Bummer! So I went for another round. Not only did I win back my money -- I came out ahead $300. I left 60 UNITS UP after being DOWN 31! It was a terrific run of luck!
I've also had similar experiences at the Craps table using this little progression. Try it out!
If you try this progression at Blackjack you'll need EXTRA cash. Why? For Double Downs and Splits. It takes some courage to back your play when you've hit the ninth rung on your progression ladder. Then you pull and "11" and need to "double down."
Of course, you can just decide not to double-down or split to keep your cost down. But these options are your "money makers" at Blackjack. I wouldn't recommend not playing these options when opportunity provides them.
10 Session Results of this Parlay at Blackjack
You can easily test this Parlay progression playing online. Here are my results for 10 Sessions at Blackjack.
Here were my self-imposed restrictions:
Here were the table rules:
At the $5 unit level, here were my results:
The "Parlay" is a GREAT way to multiply your winnings.
Here's how it works, if you WIN your first bet, you DOUBLE that bet (with the house's money) and put it all back in the betting circle to try for a second win (a parlay).
If you win, you start your progression at the start. If you lose, you move up the ladder to your next bet and try again for two wins in a row.
A winning "parlay" on an even money bet will yield 3 TIMES your original bet. Not bad right?
You can devise your own "Parlays." Here's a very simple parlay. I've used it successfully to win hundreds of dollars very quickly. I've played it at the Craps table and the casino game, "War" using a base bet of $5.
1-1-1-2-2-4-4-8-8
There are folks on the internet selling this Parlay for over $50 a pop! I'm giving it to you FREE. You're welcome!
How it Works
So you start with 1 unit. You try for a 1 unit parlay three times. You'll then double up your betting units to 2. Try for a parlay twice. Then double to four, then eight. In total you'll risk 31 UNITS. That'd be $155 dollars if you started at $5.
You Will LOSE This Series - Back Your Play!
I'd suggest you go with enough money to try THREE progressions. STOP after you've made 20 or more UNITS. But NEVER quit during a "winning" streak. Stop after your first LOSS during a winning streak.
The last time I used this progression I promptly LOST my first series. I was playing at a $5 "War" table. In a matter of minutes I was out $155! Bummer! So I went for another round. Not only did I win back my money -- I came out ahead $300. I left 60 UNITS UP after being DOWN 31! It was a terrific run of luck!
I've also had similar experiences at the Craps table using this little progression. Try it out!
If you try this progression at Blackjack you'll need EXTRA cash. Why? For Double Downs and Splits. It takes some courage to back your play when you've hit the ninth rung on your progression ladder. Then you pull and "11" and need to "double down."
Of course, you can just decide not to double-down or split to keep your cost down. But these options are your "money makers" at Blackjack. I wouldn't recommend not playing these options when opportunity provides them.
10 Session Results of this Parlay at Blackjack
You can easily test this Parlay progression playing online. Here are my results for 10 Sessions at Blackjack.
Here were my self-imposed restrictions:
- Play no more than 100 hands -- win or lose; continue only if on a winning streak past 100 hands.
- Stop at 20+ Units (Win Goal)
- Stop after a loss of three series (93 Units).
- Stop after a win of a "Split" or "Double Down" at the 8 Unit level.
Here were the table rules:
- Dealer HITS Soft 17.
- Double After Split
- ONE hit on Ace Split
- No Surrender
At the $5 unit level, here were my results:
- +112 (89 hands; 44% win ratio)
- +22.50 (101 hands; 46% win; lost 1 series)
- +122.50(52 hands; 44% win ratio)
- +32.50 (104 hands; 49% win ratio)
- +105 (31 hands; 54% win ratio)
- +115 (78 hands; 43% win ratio)
- +112.50 (55 hands; 43% win ratio)
- -107.50(104 hands; 45% win ratio; lost 2 series)
- -110 (101 hands; 35% win ratio; lost 1 series)
- +27.50 (102 hands; 45% win ratio; lost 1 series)
